What are the respective impacts of a trade surplus and a trade deficit?

In the wave of globalization, the trade balance, like an important indicator of the economic pulse, profoundly affects the industrial development and economic structure of various countries. A trade surplus refers to a state where export volume exceeds import volume, while a deficit is the opposite. These two states are like a double-edged sword, bringing both development opportunities and potential risks. Take the trade of cake refrigerated display cabinets, a Niche area in refrigeration equipment, as an example. The evolution of its trade pattern vividly illustrates the complex impact of surpluses and deficits.

The impact of a trade surplus on an economy is obviously dual. On the positive side, the growth of foreign exchange reserves brought by the surplus can provide a buffer for national economic security. In 2022, China's refrigeration equipment industry had an export volume of 94.727 billion yuan and an import volume of 8.54 billion yuan. The huge surplus not only drove employment in the industrial chain but also accumulated capital needed for technological upgrading.

In the field of cake refrigerated display cabinets, relying on cost advantages and manufacturing capabilities, the cooluma brand has gained a foothold in emerging markets. In the first half of 2024, its export growth rate to Brazil reached as high as 117%, becoming an important force driving the growth of the industry. The scale effect brought by this surplus has prompted enterprises to continuously improve the supply chain, forming a complete industrial cluster from compressors to intelligent control systems.

However, the expansion of the surplus also hides risks. Although refrigeration equipment is of good quality and low price, while growing by more than 30% in the European market, it will encounter challenges from trade barriers. In June 2025, Brazil launched the second anti-dumping sunset review investigation on safety glass for refrigeration equipment imported from China, continuing to impose an anti-dumping duty of 2.74-5.45 US dollars per square meter, which directly increased the export cost of products such as cake refrigerated display cabinets. If such trade frictions exist for a long time, they may force enterprises to compress profit margins, or even lose price advantages, thereby weakening industrial competitiveness.

The impact of a trade deficit is also two-sided. In the high-end market of display cabinets, the structural deficit stems from the gap in core technologies. International brands such as cooluma company, relying on technological accumulation, have advantages in key indicators such as precise temperature control and energy efficiency ratio. They occupy an important share in domestic star hotels and high-end bakeries. This deficit reflects the dependence of domestic high-end demand on imports. Although it meets the needs of consumption upgrading in the short term, it may lead to profit outflow in the long term and inhibit the innovation motivation of local enterprises.

But a deficit may also become a catalyst for technological progress. The pressure of deficit in the high-end market has made enterprises increase research and development investment. For example, Hisense broke through the vacuum magnetic field preservation technology through 2182 experiments. Although its principle is applied to household refrigerators, it provides ideas for the technological upgrading of commercial cake display cabinets. If properly guided, this path of "exchanging market for technology" can promote the industry to climb to the high end of the value chain and gradually narrow the gap with the international leading level.

The "ice and fire" phenomenon in the trade of different refrigerated cabinets reveals the deep logic of trade balance. The coexistence of surplus and deficit in the high-end market reflects the typical dilemma of the manufacturing industry: significant scale advantages but insufficient technological premium. To achieve sustainable development, three pairs of relationships need to be handled well:

First, balance the accumulation from surplus and technological investment. The capital brought by the export surplus of refrigeration equipment should be focused on core technology fields such as intelligent temperature control, energy conservation, and noise reduction, to break through the energy efficiency bottleneck of commercial display cabinets, cope with the strict energy efficiency label system implemented by the European Union since 2021, and shift from passively adapting to rules to actively formulating standards.

Second, grasp the rhythm of market expansion and risk prevention and control. While consolidating emerging markets such as Brazil, we should optimize the export structure with the help of RCEP tariff preferential policies, such as using the rules of origin accumulation to reduce production costs in the region, avoid the risk of relying on a single market, and reduce the impact of trade frictions.

Third, balance short-term imports and long-term independence. The import of high-end technologies and key components needs to be based on digestion and absorption. Through industry-university-research collaborative innovation, the pressure of deficit can be transformed into motivation for technological research, and finally realize the transformation from a "manufacturing power" to a "manufacturing powerhouse".

Trade surplus and deficit themselves have no absolute advantages or disadvantages. The key is to form a dynamic balance. A healthy trade pattern should be: maintaining a moderate surplus in the mid-to-low-end market to stabilize the industrial foundation, introducing advanced technologies, and finally tolerating a reasonable deficit in the high-end field to achieve overall competition through continuous innovation. Technological breakthroughs at the enterprise level also rely on precise policy guidance, which should be a help rather than a hindrance to promote industrial upgrading.